Friday, October 3, 2014

Renew Global 112


 Renew On Line 112    Nov-Dec 2014






G7’s green vision
The leaders of the G7 group of industrial countries (EU, US, Japan) met in Rome in May to consider an ‘Energy Initiative for Energy Security’, with the Russia-Ukraine crisis in mind. Their joint statement called for the ‘development of flexible, transparent and competitive energy markets, including gas markets, diversification of energy fuels, sources and routes, and encouragement of indigenous sources of energy supply, reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, and accelerating the transition to a low carbon economy, as a key contribution to enduring energy security.’ They looked to ‘enhancing energy efficiency in demand and supply, and demand response management’ and to ‘promoting deployment of clean and sustainable energy technologies and continued investment in research and innovation’ including ‘the use of low carbon technologies (renewable energies, nuclear in the countries which opt to use it, and carbon capture and storage) including those which work as a base load energy source’.http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-530_en.htm?locale=en
*The 1970s Limits to Growth study may have been (nearly) right!

New IEA 2050 scenario

More flesh was put on it by the International Energy Agency which now says $44 trillion in investment is needed to secure a global clean-energy system by 2050.That’s up from its $36 trillion 2012 estimate, this, it said, illustrating what it’s said for some time: ‘the longer we wait, the more expensive it becomes to transform our energy system.’ However, this investment would actually save over $115 trillion cumulatively by then in fuel savings.                                                                                                                        

The 2014 edition of the IEAs biennial Energy Technology Perspectives includes a scenario in which the share of electricity of overall energy demand will grow from 17% in 2011 to between 23% and 26% by 2050. Its ‘2 Degree Scenario’ (2DS), which is in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's analysis, aims to limit the rise in global temperatures to no more than 2°C. Otherwise it says we would be headed for 6DS, or 4DS even if the current policy promises are met.  In the enhanced 2DS, the share of fossil fuels in global primary energy supply drops from 80% in 2011 to just over 40% in 2050. Energy efficiency, renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS) make the largest contributions to global emissions reductions under the scenario. But, with the prospects for CCS still seen as ‘uncertain’, the IEA says that fuel switching (coal to gas), and power generation efficiency (e.g. CHP) are also ‘essential’ to reach the 2DS target cost-efficiently- as is nuclear. Under the 2DS scenario, 22 GW of new nuclear is added annually by 2050. However, the IEA notes that global nuclear capacity ‘is stagnating at this time’ and by 2025 will be 5% to 25% below needed levels. It suggests that the high capital and low running costs of nuclear create the need for policies that provide investor certainty. That’s code for market support- or in simpler terms, subsidies. By contrast it says ‘Cost per unit of energy generated by onshore wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) continued to fall in 2013, albeit at a slower rate than in previous years. Their cost-competitiveness is improving, in some countries, partly due to innovative market design’. It notes that, as a result  ‘Double-digit growth rates for wind and solar PV electricity generation over the last several years helped push the global share of renewables to 20% in 2011; the 2DS shows that renewables could reach 65% by 2050. In the 2DS-High Renewables Scenario (2DS hi-Ren), solar becomes the dominant electricity source by 2040, providing 26% of global generation by 2050’. It stresses the need for grid balancing and smart grid integration, but sees gas as just an interim option, unless CCS is developed successfully.  www.iea.org/etp/

Also E&Y says decarbonisation costs will be offset by health and fuel cost savings:  www.rtcc.org/2014/06/11/low-carbon-energy-saves-money-in-the-long-run-study/

REN21 renewables review

The annual REN21 review yields this global scoreboard: Hydro 1000GW, wind 318GW, PV 139GW, Biomass  88GW(e), Solar heating 326GW(th)
REN21’s 2014 report, as ever packed full of data, notes that hydro rose by 4% to ~1,000 GW, and other renewables grew nearly 17% to over 1560 GW total. For the first time, the world added more solar PV than wind capacity; PV and hydro were essentially tied, each accounting for about one-third of new capacity.  PV has continued to expand rapidly, with growth averaging almost 55% annually over the past 5 years. But wind has added the most capacity of all renewables over that period. In 2013, renewables overall accounted for over 56% of net additions to global electric power capacity and much more in several countries.
Heat from modern biomass, solar, and geothermal sources has a small but gradually rising share of final global heat demand, amounting to an estimated 10%. In the heating and cooling sector, REN21 says ‘trends included the increasing use of renewables in combined heat and power plants; the feeding of renewable heating and cooling into district systems; hybrid solutions in the building renovation sector; and the growing use of renewable heat for industrial purposes. The use of modern renewable technologies for heating and cooling is still limited relative to their vast potential’.
Leaders  At the end of 2013, REN21 note that China, the US, Brazil, Canada, and Germany remained the top countries for total installed renewable capacity; the top for non-hydro capacity were again China, the USA, and Germany, followed by Spain, Italy, and India. Among the world’s top 20 countries for non-hydro capacity, Denmark had a clear lead for total capacity per capita. Uruguay, Costa Rica and Mauritius among the top countries for investment in new renewable power and fuels relative to annual GDP.
The bottom line is that renewables supplied around 19% of total world energy used in 2012, compared with nuclear at 2.6%. In electricity terms they generated 22% of global electric power, with hydro at 16%, wind at 2.9%.  And the contribution can only keep on rising. www.ren21.net/gsr

But not everyone agrees!
Energy Security- a GWP report
A Global Warming Policy Foundation paper says that intermittent wind & solar pose a serious threat to energy security and UK power supply reliability. Philipp Mueller’s UK Energy Security: Myth and Reality says that indigenous fossil supplies (e.g. shale gas and oil) and global markets for fossil fuels, provide the best security, even given Russia’s intransigence, whereas the grid’s ability to deal with varying renewables is limited and will get worse if they grow. It notes that in Germany last Dec, wind & solar were almost zero for over a week. 
So? For the moment gas and coal plants had to ramp up then more, but increasingly hydro pumped storage and biogas can help, along with stored wind to gas, supergrid imports & DSM to time shift peaks. Most of the rest of the time, wind and PV reduce the need to import and use fossil (+ nuclear) fuels.
www.thegwpf.org/renewable-energy-poses-security-risk-new-paper-warns The report says it’s not necessarily a GWPF view! Also see: http://euanmearns.com/renewable-energy-growth-in-perspective/and http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/57973
See also Charles Frank’s analysis for the Brookings Institute. He says PV & wind aren’t
as cost effective as CO2 savers as gas, hydro, & nukes www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/05/low-carbon-electricity-technologies-frank  For a rebuttal: www.forbes.com/sites/amorylovins/2014/08/05/sowing-confusion-about-renewable-energy/  See also Cooper’s analysis, with nuclear seen as very much less attractive: http://216.30.191.148/Cooper%20SMRs%20are%20Part%20of%20the%20Problem,%20Not%20the%20Solution%20FINAL2.pdf And for a quick strategic overview: http://bit.ly/1pdCXN0

New 100% renewables scenarios  For a show stopping review of sustainable energy and how to balance variable renewables, with case studies of the US and Mexico, and staggering ‘100% of all energy by 2050’ renewable scenarios for Korea, Japan and China, see Bent Sorensen’s excellent new book ‘Energy Intermittency’. A must buy! www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466516069  See also his helpful new web site: www.secantus.dk
IRENA- 2030                                       
The International Renewable Energy Agency REMap 2030 report, says that the world could double its renewable energy capacity by 2030, and supply 30% of global energy. Moreover this will not be costly. Indeed it could save money long term due to reduced use of expensive fossil fuel. IRENA says that  worldwide incremental energy system costs amount to an average of USD 133 billion annually until 2030, while average incremental investment needs are around USD 265 billion annually to 2030. Renewable subsidies rise to USD 315 billion in 2030 with the REmap Options fully deployed, but in some countries, subsidies peak before 2030. In comparison, global subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to USD 544 billion in 2012. Fossil-fuel subsidies will fall when the share of renewable energy rises.’ And there will be other benefits: ‘Average health benefits due to the mitigation of air pollution from fossil-fuel use are in the range of USD 1.9-4.6 per GJ, while carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation benefits are in the range of USD 3-12 per GJ. The total of cost and benefits results in net savings of at least USD 123 billion, and as high as USD 738 billion by 2030.’
Their estimates for renewable shares are less than in the scenarios by WWF etc, but that’s partly because the 30% estimate does not assume major energy savings. If you do, the share could rise up to 36%. The bottom line though is that many renewables are now competitive and will boom. And soon, even more so, as their cost continue to fall.

IRENA REMAP 2030:
For a good review see: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/remap-2030-launched-roadmap-doubling-renewable-energy-share-2030 
              


Global news
 
EU News
  
German renewables boom
Single market soon    

Southern and NW European power grids and exchanges have linked markets to cover about 70% of Europe, bringing it closer to integrated electricity pricing and reducing risks to supply. The physical and financial integration of the two regions creates a common day-ahead power market stretching from Portugal to Finland. That is likely to benefit consumers by enabling power to flow from cheaper to more costly areas most of the time, with local renewables variations being better balanced.
www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/13/europe-power-idUSL6N0NZ45P20140513?
German energy co-ops

In Germany, 942 energy cooperatives were officially registered by 31st December 2013, with most of them directly involved with renewable energy generation.
So says ‘The socio-economic power of renewable energy production cooperatives in Germany: results of an empirical assessment, from the Wuppertal Institute.
It looks in detail at their make up and performance, noting that ‘in total, surveyed renewable energy production cooperatives, for which data is available, unified around 76,500 actors and had about €693m capital at their disposal by 2012. In 2012, the majority of analysed renewable energy production cooperatives had an equity share above 30%. Most cooperatives that were registered in 2010 achieved a return on equity that lay between 1% and 10% and made a profit of between one and €50,000 two years after their registration. Most capital is invested, predominantly in energy production technologies.’ It concluded ‘Renewable energy production cooperatives provide robust organisational structures for diffusing renewable, regional and decentralised energy production’ adding that ‘cooperatives with a focus on renewable energy production may have further potential to increase their socio-economic power’.    http://epub.wupperinst.org/frontdoor/index/index/docId/5364  

Let’s hope they, and prosumers, survive the FiT cuts. The IEA’s new Prosumer report is very good: http://iea-retd.org/archives/publications/e-prosumers-report  So, more aggressively, is this www.claverton-energy.com/the-death-of-another-beautiful-game.html?

This is also still worth checking out: http://blog.rmi.org/blog_2013_04_17_germanys_renewables_revolution                                 
 * On a Sunday this May, Germany’s renewables met nearly 75% of overall power demand around midday. In the first quarter of 2014 overall, renewables met a record 27% of the electricity demand, thanks to favorable weather. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/13/3436923/germany-energy-records/
French energy plans
The French national plan (see last Renew) sets a 40% by 2030 renewable electricity goal. 
Some of that will be from offshore wind and tidal sites. As well as on-land wind and PV. But there are also some inspiring local initiatives. For example, the Perpignan Méditerranée area in France aims to meet all its electricity needs through local renewables: 75% of the region’s electricity needs are already met by renewables. It’s following on from the 74 regions and municipalities in Germany that have already reached 100% renewable status. See the WFC-led  global ‘100% renewables’ campaign: www.resurgence.org/magazine/article4138-world-future-council.html
Bad news: FiT cuts
The Greek government has proposed cuts to its successful Feed-in Tariff  to cut the deficit in the fund it uses to pay for renewable energy incentives. The so-called ‘New Deal’ will cut  FiT rates not only for new systems, but also for those already in place with
contracts. It will also retroactively cut the amount due to energy  producers for the power they sold in 2013 by up to 20%. Painful. Hard pressed Spain has already cut its FiTs. Germany’s new support system has yet to have an impact, same for the new French policy, but cuts seem the norm given the rightward shift.  For another example the Danish climate and energy minister has warned that the government may drop future offshore wind projects if their power price doesn’t fall.
Better news: EU emissions fall even lower        The EU seems set to more than meet its 2020 climate target (a 20% emission cut/1990) with emissions falling to the lowest recorded. Since 1990, Germany, the UK and Denmark all made ~25% cuts, but some new EU countries did even better, Estonia, Latvia. Lithuania and Romania all reduced emissions by well over 50%. Some of this was due to the recession, with emissions from road transport continuing to fall (by 4% from 2011-12), and industrial production (by 20%). In energy generation, renewables will have played their part, although in 2011-12 those gains were wiped out by increased use of coal in Germany, the UK and Spain (with net sector emissions rising by 3%), and the rise of consumer energy use (adding 4%), partly due to a cold winter.  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-union-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2014 
Given the new 30% by 2030 target, the EU must try harder: www.sandbag.org.uk/site_media/pdfs/reports/Europes_failure_to_tackle_coal.pdf

Global roundup
China  In addition to shale gas exploration and new nuclear plant construction, a new policy review says that China aims to enhance energy efficiency and there will be new hydro, wind and solar projects, plus ultra-high voltage transmission lines. To support all this China will accelerate the pace of reform of the electricity market ‘to  promote direct trading, providing a more economical, high quality power protection, letting the market play a decisive role in the allocation of power resources.’ That sounds ominous, judging by UK’s market led EMR mess. But China has now raised its PV target to 70GW by 2017 (up from 20GW now). By 2017 it also plans to have150 GW of wind, 11 GW of biomass and 330 GW of hydro. And a new WWF report says it could get 80% of its electricity from renewables by 2050, up from about 19% now: http://worldwildlife.org/publications/china-s-future-generation-assessing-the-maximum-potential-for-renewable-power-sources-in-china-to-2050  
For a useful overview of China’s energy situation see http://understandchinanenergy.org

Japan  There are scant details of the new energy programme, but, while renewables are being pushed, along with some nuclear restarts, this rather gloomy report says coal-fired IGCCT is also being pushed: www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-13/post-fukushima-japan-chooses-coal-over-renewable-energy.html  But there are some good local renewable energy projects e.g. www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/05/fukushima-japan-rebuilding-communities-with-solar-commits-to-a-100-percent-renewable-energy-by-2040? And an ice wall is being built at Fukushima!

Africa  Renewables are beginning to take off in North Africa and are likely to double to 120GW by 2020: www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/03/renewables-in-north-africa-a-nation-by-nation-report-card?cmpid=WNL-Wednesday-March26-2014  And Africa as a whole has ~100 wind farms, with 4000+ turbines. In all ~12GW is in operation or planned. PV too:
www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/apr/30/solar-power-green-energy-african-development?

India The Centre for Science & Environment’s ‘Citizen’s report on the state of Renewable Energy in India’ looks in detail at large and small scale renewables and policy challenges. It’s hard to get details on what’s happening in India, so this is well worth the $40 charge:  http://csestore.cse.org.in/usd/books/state-of-renewable-energy-in-india-report.html

Ukraine 40% of Ukraine’s energy is from gas, mostly imported from Russia. Only 2% of it power is renewable, PV 0.3% (130 MW) wind 0.2% (86 MW). But that could grow 10 fold by 2020, with total new investments of €15 bn, mainly on PV and biomass. www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/04/renewable-energy-may-help-ukraine-abandon-russian-gas? Under new ownership: will Russia restart Crimea's 400MW of wind/pv projects?

USA Obama, bypassing a deadlocked Congress, used his executive authority to release $2bn for energy-saving at federal government buildings, and new financing and training programmes for PV installations. Symbolically, the White House now has some solar panels again- those installed by Carter were removed by Reagan. But it’s taking forever for the US to get offshore wind going. Sadly it has a lead in false starts.14.7 GW of projects have been planned and then abandoned, though at last some progress has been made: www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/05/doe-picks-winners-for-u-s-offshore-wind-development?   Despite vociferous opposition to some New England projects: www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/05/judge-has-harsh-words-for-cape-wind-foes?
For a good US energy overview: www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/05/the-time-for-wind-and-solar-energy-is-now? Less good was a New York Times editorial assertion (1/5/14) that ‘only Germany succumbed to panic after the Fukushima disaster and began to phase out all nuclear power in favor of huge investments in renewable sources like wind and sun’. What of the post-Fukushima policies in Italy, Belgium, Switzerland? Or Japan? Or Taiwan? http://energytransition.de/2014/05/the-wrong-lessons-at-the-new-york-times/

US Wind deaths   Tragically, 4 people died after their single-engined plane hit a 1.5MW GE wind turbine in South Dakota. Aircraft collisions with power grid pylons do happen, but never before with turbines: so far only 146 deaths had been reported globally due to wind plant operation, installation or maintenance accidents- none involving the public.
Climate change- COP 20
The global negotiations at the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention of Climate Change, continue with COP20 in Dec. in Peru. A Kyoto II protocol was agreed at an earlier COP, but it’s not legally binding, with the USA and China not being willing to accept limits to their growth.
However the USA does now seem serious about reducing emissions. The Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed new rules establish mandatory limits on CO2 emissions from existing power plants, cutting them overall by 30% from 2005 levels by 2030. Under the rules, states and power companies will have a range of options to meet the new state level standards: switching from coal to cleaner-burning natural gas; forming cap-and-trade markets; expanding renewables such as wind and solar power; or encouraging customers to use less energy by moving to more efficient heating and cooling systems and appliances.  But it’s not a done deal: the policy is opposed by climate skeptics and fossil fuel lobbyist, and even if it goes ahead, with state plans having to be filed by 2016, they will have up to15 years to fully implement them.
The EPA says the 30% cut goal ‘is achievable because innovations in the production, distribution and use of electricity are already making the power sector more efficient and sustainable while maintaining an affordable, reliable and diverse energy mix. This proposed rule would reinforce and continue this progress’. The EPA says that ‘in 2030, the significant reductions in the harmful carbon pollution and in other air pollution, to which this rule would lead, would result in net climate and health benefits of $48 bn to $82 bn. At the same time, coal and natural gas would remain the two leading sources of electricity generation in the U.S., with each providing more than 30% of the projected generation’.
Given the scale of extreme weather related damage that has been visited on the US in recent years, that's not surprising. That can’t necessarily be linked to climate change, but the White House seems to have shifted near to that position. The third US National Climate Assessment, commissioned by the White House, says that ‘climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present’, noting that extreme weather events has increased in the last 50 years, with pro-longed periods of heat, floods and droughts in some areas. Temperatures may rise 2°F to 4°F more in most areas of the US in the next few decades, but reductions in some ‘short-lived human-induced emissions’ could cut some of the projected warming. It warns that ‘the amount of warming projected beyond the next few decades is directly linked to the cumulative global emissions of heat-trapping gases and particles,’ but says ‘there is still time to act to limit the amount of change and the extent of damaging impacts’. Sounds good.
But see: http://time.com/2899506/obama-carbon-regulations/
It was also said that it that China would set absolute limits, though evidently that’s not a formal policy. But the chair of China's Advisory Committee on Climate Change said that an absolute cap on CO2 emissions might come into effect from 2016 (though that was later denied). China had previously committed to cutting its carbon intensity i.e. CO2 /GNP, by 40-45% by 2020, compared to 2005 levels, but that would have allowed for continued growth in absolute emissions. Reuters was told that emissions were likely to peak at around 11bn tonnes CO2 equivalent, up from 7-9.5bn t CO2e now, by 2030: see chart below for the growth up to 2012. But even if that was stabilised and reduced a bit, it’s still way ahead off all others.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/09/china-climatechange-idUKL4N0OQ0WB20140609
 And Australia & Canada are resisting change.
COP 20 will be followed by the key COP 21 in Paris in 2015. By then we’ll know if Obama’s plan survived. And the EU! http://unfccc.int/


 
Nuclear news


Hot particle fears                               

Marco Kalton, a US civil engineer at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, says that that his team found a tiny10 micron particle which is extremely radioactive (40 PBq/g), 460 km from Fukushima, presumably carried there by the wind. If this is indicative of a more widespread hot particle problem, as some allege, Japan is in deep trouble. This is also important as it appears to be a fuel particle from one of the 3 reactors which exploded at Fukushima and may be indicative of a criticality event (nuclear fission) inside one of the reactors, which, if it occurred after the plants’ emergency shut down, arguably, radiation impacts specialist Ian Fairlie says, puts Fukushima into a new more sinister category of accidents. More at: http://fairewinds.org/hottest-particle/  This issue isn’t covered directly in the new UNSCEAR report on radiation exposure from the Fukushima disaster, but that does provide collective radiation dose estimates, from which Dr Fairlie deduced an estimated long-term cancer  death toll of around 5,000, leaving aside hot particles. WISE NM 785.
Return to sender
The fourth and largest shipment so far of high-level n-waste from the UK to Japan
was carried out earlier this year. All such waste, from reprocessing of Japan’s used
fuel (to extract the plutonium) at THORP at Sellafield, should be returned to Japan by the end of the decade. Just what they need! It will be stored at the Rokkasho-Mura site. The UK will also return vitrified waste to the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Switzerland over a 10 year period, in 11 shipments to transfer in total 1850 canisters.
Are new reactors safer than old reactors?
It seems possible that very old reactors are more dangerous. The Fukushima plant was certainly old-the reactors 1-5 were all started up in the 1970s. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s 2012 annual Nuclear Safety Review said: ‘There are growing expectations that older nuclear reactors should meet enhanced safety objectives, closer to that of recent or future reactor designs.’ It noted that ‘there is a concern about the ability of the ageing nuclear fleet to fulfill these expectations’. But very new ones are also risky. Ben Sovacool and Christopher Cooper noted in a 2008 journal article: ‘The Fermi Unit 1 reactor began commercial operation in August 1966, but had a partial meltdown only two months after opening. The St. Laurent des Eaux A1 Reactor in France started in June 1969, but an online refueling machine malfunctioned and melted 400 pounds of fuel four months later. The Browns Ferry Unit 1 reactor in Alabama began commercial operation in August 1974 but experienced a fire severely damaging control equipment six months later. Three Mile Island Unit 2 began commercial operation in December 1978 but had a partial meltdown three months after it started. Chernobyl Unit 4 started up in August 1984, and suffered the worst nuclear disaster in history on April 26, 1986 before the two-year anniversary of its operation.’ What about the next Generation 4 reactors? These are totally safe- since they don’t exist yet! A nuclear industry insider has quipped: ‘We know that the paper moderated, ink-cooled reactor is the safest of all. All kinds of unexpected problems may occur after a project has been launched.’ From Nuclear Monitor 782

Sellafield Ltd is co-operating with the company running Japan’s Fukushima clean-up operation: ‘There are many similar challenges that we’ll be facing on our sites over the coming years and we can share our experiences’. Let’s hope they didn't mean that literally. There is plenty to do.The fuel stored at Fukushima unit 4 should soon all be transferred to a central storage pool on the site. But the melted fuel in the others can’t be touched. It may be 30 years or more before the site is cleaned up.

 US plant worries                                                                                                                The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission says that dozens of US plants that reassessed their vulnerability to quakes in the wake of the meltdowns in Japan are at greater risk than they were originally licensed to withstand. They include the Seabrook coastal plant 56 miles north of Boston. There have been calls for urgent action. But as more US n-plants (maybe a third say some) face the threat of closures due to competition from wind & gas, the industry has fought back via a new lobby group, Nuclear Matters   http://safeenergy.org/2014/04/25/the-nuclear-industrys-earth-week
More delay  The start up of Olkiluoto EPR in Finland has now been put back even further, to 2018, 13 years after work on it began.